THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF SOCIO-POLITICAL SITUATION FORECASTING IN THE INTEREST OF MILITARY SERVICE MISSION PERFORMANCE BY FORCES OF THE NATIONAL GUARD OF UKRAINE AND THE WAYS OF ITS OPTIMIZATION

Abstract

Problems of forecasting of socio-political situation in the interest of mission performance by forces of the National Guard of Ukraine have been considered. The ways of optimization of forecasting in terms of decision-making process have been defined.

The role of forecasting is not in specific problem solving by matching tasks with activities, but just in detection of the most important problems which society can face in future, probabilistic ways, terms and outcomes of their solving by different methods as well as assessment of efficiency of different options for their solving. Important role of forecasting is in significant reduction of the period of uncertainty, in outlining of realistic tasks and targets.

Forecasting is also necessary because it is implemented on permanent basis due to receipt of new information and gives reasonable assessments of development of socio-political situation. The forecasting methods give opportunity to forecast the possible ways of development of socio-political situation basing on its internal and external connections. 

During decision-making process each command and control component of the National Guard of Ukraine wishes to obtain the most suitable and the best forecast considering it as a reliable one. And really, at first sight, the more accurate forecasting assessments to a real situation are, the more possibility to achieve the desired results in case of different equal conditions is.

It is proved, that there is a connection between forecasting and management of decision-making process, which is in encouraging function of forecast. This function of forecasting effect has impacts on initial preconditions of forecasting. The forecasting effect can be both positive, so it precipitates forecasting process and negative, so hampers its implementation and even can cause self-destruction of a forecast sometimes. If forecast corresponds to the object’s development conditions that means its positive implementation. And vice versa, discrepancy in forecast to these conditions effects negatively on its implementation.