METHODOLOGICAL BASIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE EXPECTED EFFECTIVENESS OF MILITARY-SERVICE MISSIONS BY MILITARY UNITS AND SUBUNITS OF THE NATIONAL GUARD OF UKRAINE

Abstract

In the article the basic concepts of methodology for developing models for assessing the expected effectiveness of social conflict processes of NGU troops performing tasks, the correlation and interconnection of these concepts, the modeling contradictions that cause failure in model development were systematized and presented, the methodological foundations of the development of obviously useful models with a simultaneous forecast of their values performance indicators were systematized and presented: reliability, efficiency, completeness of modeling, usefulness of the developed model compared to the existing model and the ideal one. Expressions for predicting the time spent on developing a model are given.

At the same time, while the developing models, it is sometimes sufficient to use only some of the following key ideas of the methodological foundations:

‒ determination of the goals of a real simulated process (object) and modeling goals;

‒ introduction of the concept of “ideal” object, for which the selected indicators have the best marginal values (ideal solution);

‒ determination of the main parameters of the simulated object (process) and corresponding to these parameters ‒ the mathematical apparatus for building the model;

‒ transition in the description of the model from parameters and indicators that have a dimension, to dimensionless parameters and indicators;

‒ formation of hypothesis about the significant features of a modeled process, assumptions and scales of significant factors and parameters;

‒ forecast of values of the performance indicators of the model - indicators: reliability (R), timeliness (P), completeness (Y), utility (W) and time spent (Tm) on model development;

‒ checking the adequacy of the model using direct and indirect verification methods.

The tools (procedures, calculation formulas) presented in the methodological foundations make it possible to predict the values of the quality indicators of the developed models and the duration of the development depending on the conditions of the organization of work, which is a key sign that the foundations belong to the category of science and for the first time allows you to introduce an element of the scientific substantiation of decisions in matters of methodology research and modeling.