METHOD OF FORECASTING PSYCHOGENIC LOSSES OF MILITARY PERSONNEL DURING COMBAT TASKS

Abstract

The article presents a modern classification of total losses of personnel in a special period, clarified the content of irreversible, sanitary and psychogenic losses and proposed a methodology for forecasting psychogenic losses of servicemen of the security and defense sector of Ukraine when performing combat tasks in a special period. The basis of the developed methodology is the extrapolation method of forecasting theory based on trend models. To approximate the identified trends and extrapolate them to the future, the second-order polynomial is used in the methodology, which is able to describe changes in speed and acceleration that occur during the development of a dynamic process. In addition, the methodology uses a toolkit for discounting initial data, which makes it possible to give greater significance to the latest observations of a dynamic series in the event of sudden changes in the dynamic process. Conversely, if the dynamic series is free from sharp fluctuations, the formation of forecast estimates will be influenced by all elements of this series equally. Therefore, the forecaster has the opportunity to assess the dynamics of psychogenic losses that have occurred in a certain unit, military unit (unit), and adjust the forecasting tool (methodology) accordingly. The produced predictive assessment of psychogenic losses consists of point and interval estimates determined for a prescriptively established confidence probability value. To make predictions about the number of psychogenic losses, the technique uses real accumulated statistical data on such losses in a unit, military unit or unit over the past period of time. Due to this approach, the technique is universal and, therefore, can be used in any formation of the security and defense forces of Ukraine.