METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE STATE OF WEAPONS FOR THE PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE OF FUTURE TASKS

Abstract

In military point, during exploitation, the standards of armament and military technique pass the next stages of existence: introduction to exploitation, coersion to the alertness, maintenance in complete readiness, use on (battle application) purpose, storage and transporting. In course of time, under the action of both external and internal factors, properties of standards of armament and military technique change in a worst side, that, accordingly, results in worsening of their tactical – technique descriptions. Now there is not general methodology on prognostication of the real state of standards of armament and military technique for realization of previous (future) verification m/p. However, the use of the known theories of reliability and probability allows beforehand to conduct the calculations of the real state of standards of armament and military technique. Thus, application of requirements of Instruction on verification and estimation of the state of armament and military technique in Military Powers of Ukraine also allows beforehand to define the estimation of future verification m/p on the real state of standards of armament and military technique. Consequently, in the article prognostication of the state of standards of armament m/p before future verification and probability of receipt is considered m/p of corresponding estimation for the state of standards of armament for future verification.

On the basis of the obtained data about the actual state of standards of armament m/p in the moment of prognostication, that expressed through the coefficient of readiness of standards of armament, calculations are conducted: general estimation of readiness of standards of armament to implementation of tasks on purpose, estimations of middle and most credible amount of standards of armament m/p at any moment to time, that are in a complete alertness, probability of good condition the determined amount of standards of armament, probabilities of receipt m/p on the state the standards of armament of positive (negative) estimation during verification.

Methodology of prognostication of the state of standards of armament is offered m/p before future final verification that allows to define a positive (negative) estimation m/p on the real state of standards of armament. Methodology it maybe to apply for any types of armament and military technique, for that, from statistical (operating) data, it maybe to define the coefficient of readiness of standards of armament and military technique.