Expert-analytical model of assessment of the geopolitical capability of a state based on the implementation of strategic planning measures for the development of the defense-industrial complex

Abstract

The theoretical and methodological principles of forming an expert and analytical model for assessing the geopolitical power of a state as a key tool for strategic planning for the development of the defense-industrial complex are considered. The relevance of the topic is due to the transformation of the international security system, the growth of conflict potential in the world, and the need to ensure the effective functioning of the national strategic management system in the face of hybrid threats. The research proposes an improved conceptual and terminological basis for modern geopolitics and introduces the concept of "geopolitical power" into scientific circulation as an integral characteristic of a state's ability influence international processes through a combination of military, economic, demographic, natural resource, technological and social factors.
Based on the analysis of currently used approaches, the need to create a system for quantitatively assessing the level of geopolitical power is substantiated, which will allow moving from subjective expert assessments to a unified methodology of strategic analysis. The proposed model is based on a multi-level hierarchy of factors and their indicators, including: mathematical-geographic, natural-resource, socio-geographic, political- and military-geographic, communication, economic, etc. For each of them, the weight in the overall structure of geopolitical power has been determined, as well as the possibility of their digital modeling using special-purpose computer technology M7. The use of the T. Saati scale ensures the objectivity of expert assessment, and the construction of a database of factors and indicators opens up prospects for automated analysis of the geopolitical situation of the state.
The results of the study can be used for strategic planning of the development of the security and defense sector of Ukraine, as well as for conducting a systematic analysis of the foreign policy environment.
The proposed model creates a basis for further development of a methodology for assessing the military power of the states of the region and improving approaches to the digitalization of national security processes. It is emphasized that the practical implementation of the model will contribute to increasing the efficiency of management decisions in the field of defense planning and strengthening Ukraine's positions in the global geopolitical space.